Humanitarian Supply Chains: Syria Evacuation Scenario (CIV and MIL)

CASE STUDY CONCEPT: Mission Planning Under Conditions of Stress and Uncertainty. We live in a world where joint military and civilian humanitarian missions are called for with increasing frequency. Working through this case will give you deeper insights into the logistics required to support humanitarian and military operations.

Situation Report — There is suddenly an opportunity to end the fighting in Syria. The UN Security Council has approved the Munich Security Conference recommendation previously endorsed by the 17-nation International Syria Support Group. A Chapter VII Peace Enforcement mission is authorized with participant nations committing Peace Keeping (PK) forces as part of the approved UN Peace Support Operation (PSO).

You are in charge of logistics for the first phase of this mission. The first phase is to start immediately and last 90 to 120 days. It’s purpose is to get the mission underway, and provide time for longer-term solutions to be put in place.

The video below presents a quick overview of the planning tasks for this first phase. It shows how to use the 5-step Mission & Operations Planning (M&OP) process combined with supply chain simulations to create the supply chain plans you need. We call this logistics planning process “Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain (IPSC)“.

NOTE: This is an advanced case. Work through the three challenges of the beginning case, “Cincinnati Seasonings” before taking on the challenges in this case.

[ Instructors, students and professionals can request a free SCM Globe trial demo ]

Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain (IPSC)

This case illustrates a repeatable and scalable best practice for planning and operating supply chains under conditions of stress and uncertainty. It borrows techniques from the military best practice known as Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB). The logistics equivalent of this is Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain (IPSC), which is designed to meet these key objectives:

IPSC employs a 5-step process called “Mission and Operations Planning” to organize and structure the work of creating mission logistics plans. This process uses supply chain simulations to quickly do the thousands of calculations to reconcile the daily mission demand plans with the daily supply plans. This enables creation, implementation, and monitoring of continuously updated mission logistics plans as the mission progresses.

Mission and Operations Planning (M&OP) is a concise 5-step process based on a streamlined version of Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) used in commercial supply chains. The diagram below illustrates the five steps of the M&OP process. Steps 1,2 and 3 create the data that defines the initial supply chain model for this mission. Steps 4 and 5 use simulations to reconcile the supply plan with the demand plan and drive creation a supply chain model and operating plan that meets the needs of the mission.

See a step by step guide for each of the five M&OP steps in our case study “Nepal Earthquake Disaster Response“. Scroll down to the heading “SECOND CHALLENGE:
Use the Mission and Operations Planning (M&OP) Process to Create Supply Chain Operating Plans”.

** NOTE: Another organizing framework for use with this case is the US DoD Joint Planning Process as presented in the JP 5-0 publication (December 2020). The Joint Planning Process is explained in Chapter III Joint Planning Process. See the diagram showing the seven steps of the JPP on page III-4. These step are similar to the five steps of the M&OP framework.

Mission Orders Guide First Phase Planning

Mobilization of aforementioned PK units is expected to take 90 to 120 days, therefore President of the United States (POTUS) has directed Secretary of Defense (SECDEF), in concert with Secretary of State (SECSTATE), to map out requirements to achieve the following mission objectives:

• De-escalate combat operations within specified corridors of the contested areas within Syria to allow safe migration of refugees
• Ensure safe passage and transit of NGO (Non-Governmental Organizations) and medical support as part of Humanitarian efforts within contested zones
• Create ‘safe haven’ areas for up to 500,000 refugees to be housed, clothed, fed and medically supported in a secure environment
• Provide advance logistics support for the pending arrival of UN Chapter VII PSO personnel

The mission is assigned code name “Inherent Rescue”, and the SECDEF has ordered the Commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) to immediately begin planning and implementation of the POTUS directive. Initial forces are to be enroute to the revised CENTCOM AOR (Area of Responsibility) within 48 hours. Forces will operate under the command structure of Joint Task Force 51 (JTF-51)

Designated CENTCOM mission commander has put together the concept of operations (CONOPS) and mission orders that will be used to carry out Inherent Rescue. This is shown in the  diagrams below. Now it’s your job to create the logistics plans to support this CONOPS.

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The diagram above shows where the mission facilities will be located and the functions each facility will support. The diagram below shows the personnel that will be stationed at each facility to carry out the functions assigned to each facility.

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Create the Mission Logistics Plan

You might feel completely overwhelmed at the size of the task, and all the complexity, and the seemingly impossible challenge of being ready to go in 48 hours. But nobody wants to hear your excuses… So you have to do something. You decide to use an approach that combines a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS), supply chain modeling and simulation app with a concise five-step Mission and Operations Planning (M&OP) process as described in the video above.

 (click screenshot for larger image)

You apply Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain (IPSC) to explore options and make good decisions in a timely manner. It’s a far better thing to make good decisions in a timely manner (when it really counts), rather than trying to make perfect decisions later (when it’s too late anyway).

 (click screenshot for larger image)

You go with the best plan you can devise given the time and information available. You brief the mission commander, implement the plan, and monitor the situation as the mission progresses. You update your supply chain model with actual operating data from the field, and run simulations to adjust your operating plan as needed. You use simulations like radar to probe through the fog of uncertainty to find the best way forward as events unfold.

The IPSC / M&OP process is summarized in the short slide brief below:

Download planning worksheets from the SlideShare presentation below. They provide M&OP Demand and Supply Planning Templates and the forms you need for the 5-step M&OP process. Sample data shown in the templates is from this Syria evacuation scenario.

NOTE: This is an ADVANCED LEVEL case study – work through a beginning level case such as Cincinnati Seasonings before attempting to work with this case.

*** The design for this real-time logistics collaboration platform is presented in our article, “Massively Multiplayer Disaster Response Collaboration“, published by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM)  Center for Excellence in Disaster Management, Liaison Journal, Volume 13, Issue 2, Dec 2021. The article starts on pg. 66; view it online or download a PDF copy here – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K81ShvL7gmvl1XBtVKpPR-1HdOq1VtkQ/view?usp=sharing

Commanding general of the U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) requested a briefing on how this platform enables effective collaboration, and how this platform can be designed to withstand cyber attacks and communication disruptions. Our short slide brief for the general can be viewed online or downloaded here – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lxn2lFXGLcFv28KujBVHnIkkA_RziCvZ/view?usp=sharing

YOUR CHALLENGE:
Create Mission Logistics Plan for the First 15 – 30 Days

After watching the video and reading the “Modeling and Simulating Humanitarian Supply Chains” report, you can get started by going to the online library and loading the “Operation Inherent Rescue – Syria Evacuation” supply chain model into your account. When you open this supply chain model in the Edit screen you will see it is actually composed of two supply chains. One is a civilian (CIV) supply chain to support the refugees, and the other is a military (MIL) supply chain to support the troops who protect the humanitarian operation.

The initial supply chain you load from the library already has a first set of numbers loaded in it. These numbers were calculated using the M&OP process. This model will run for five days and then problems start to happen (no plan survives contact with reality). You need to respond to those problems and figure out how to get this supply chain to run for 15 – 30 days. Do what you feel you need to do, but also try to manage operating costs and inventory levels as best you can. These kind of joint military-civilian humanitarian missions are expensive. And demand for such missions is increasing… There are useful ideas to be found in the online guide section “Reducing Inventory and Operating Costs”

NOTE: You may wish to set product demand numbers in the CIV supply chain to zero in order to concentrate on exploring and optimizing the MIL supply chain first.

Do what you need to do to get the supply chain to run for 15+ days. Download the resulting simulation data and import it into the Mission Reporting Template shown below. Use the Mission Costs and KPI report plus the dashboard in the template to find areas where you can make improvements to your supply chain model. Make improvements in those areas and run the simulation again. Import the simulation data into the Mission Reporting Template again and see what it shows you. Make more improvements. After two or three iterations you will have a surprisingly good supply chain design.

The supply chain model is the mission logistics plan: it shows how to organize and position the products, facilities, vehicles and routes. It shows which facilities will deliver what products to other facilities. It shows the vehicles to be used, and their routes and product delivery amounts and frequencies required. After several iterations using the M&OP process based on simulation results, you will have an efficient supply chain model (logistics plan) that simulations show will be able to handle the situation over the next two to four weeks at a reasonable cost.

When you have questions about how to work with this case, the answer is always to ask yourself, “What would I do if this were the real world and I was the person in charge?” Model and simulate different possible ideas. Make plausible assumptions, then add/change/delete products, facilities, vehicles and routes as called for to model your ideas. Simulations show how well your ideas work. Pick what works best.

MISSION REPORTING TEMPLATE — There is reporting template with an operations report and a performance dashboard for analyzing your simulation data. The template is built for a 15-day period. You can import your simulation data after trimming it for 15 days. The operations report shows facility and product detail, and the dashboard shows where the best opportunities are for improvement. You can download a copy of the mission reporting template here – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oVTRERBOyNjTy2r96ULJGXLMsUsYDQq2ycWlWR5krQM/edit#gid=1631670037

[If you are using SCM Globe Professional version, mission reports can be generated automatically by clicking on the “Generate P&L Report” button on the Simulate Screen]

The reporting template is set up for the MIL Supply Chain in this case, but look at how the reports read the product and simulation data – you will see how to change the spreadsheet as needed to accommodate the CIV Supply Chain.

[ We are glad to provide a free evaluation account to instructors, students and supply chain professionals interested in exploring SCM Globe simulations — click here to request an account — Get Your Free Trial Demo ]

NOTES FOR USING THE MISSION REPORTING TEMPLATE — In addition to the original P&L report and KPIs, there are new features and tabs in the Mission Reporting template as described below:

• Ordering cost – an estimate of how much it costs an organization to place an order, receive the order, issue payment, and put away the inventory delivered. Different companies have different ordering costs; estimates can range from $15 to $150 or more. Industry trade associations can provide data on average ordering costs for companies in their industries, or your company may already have an ordering cost it uses for EOQ calculations. The template uses a default cost of $35.00.
• Annual holding costs – often estimated at 20% of product price. Industry trade associations can provide data on average annual holding costs for companies in their industries.
• EOQ Delivery Amount and Frequency — these features use data from the supply chain model plus the ordering cost and holding costs to apply the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)  equation to suggest an amount and frequency for product deliveries to different facilities. The numbers are only suggestions and often need to be adjusted, but they provide a starting point. See more about this in the online guide section “Cutting Inventory and Operating Costs“, scroll down to the heading “Use Economic Order Quantity to Calculate Delivery Amounts and Frequencies”
• Dashboard Tab — a high level view of overall supply chain performance. You assign weights to each of the performance categories (Inventory, Transportation, and Storage) to reflect your strategy for improving operations. Assign higher weights to the categories most critical to the success of a particular mission. This will focus people’s attention on the performance categories you most want to improve. Assign category performance targets that are ambitious but achievable. Performance targets are recommended by logistics planners and approved by the mission commander. The dashboard calculates percent effectiveness for each facility and the overall plan by comparing the simulation results generated by your supply chain model to the predefined performance targets. Based on the weights assigned to each target, a net performance score is calculated for the whole supply chain.
  
  [NOTE: The example above indicates targets assigned for cost of products delivered to Tartus Port and Homs may be too ambitious because of the low effectiveness rate achieved by this supply chain operating model. However, if the targets are realistic and achievable, these low effectiveness rates show this is where the most improvement is needed and logistics planners need to focus on making supply chain operating improvements to decrease those actual costs so as to better meet these targets. The dashboard also shows the transportation performance targets are being met or exceeded, and the other place where logistics planners need to focus their attention is on improving storage utilization at Tartus Port, Homs, and the FOBs.]
• Products Tab — enter the price, weight, and volume for each product in the supply chain model. These numbers will be used by the macro equations in the first two tabs to calculate supply chain KPIs and Dashboard displays.

PRESENT YOUR LOGISTICS PLAN — Once you have a supply chain model that runs for 15+ days, and after you have taken actions to reduce operating costs and inventory levels, put together a briefing for the commander of JTF-51. Include the following in your brief:

• CONOPS showing operating facilities to be used and personnel located at each facility
• Demand Plan based on CONOPS showing demand for different categories of products at each facility
• Supply Plan showing vehicles and routes to deliver products to facilities to meet demand
• Supply Chain Model showing location of products, facilities, vehicles and routes on a map and specifications for each of these entities
• Supply Chain Operating Plan based on the supply chain model – it specifies facilities, vehicles and routes plus delivery frequencies and amounts
• Simulation Results with operating costs and inventory levels at each facility over the first 15+ days – this is your baseline for tracking plan vs actual performance

YOUR SECOND CHALLENGE:
Update Logistics Plan to Support Evolving Mission

The initial surge of troops and humanitarian aid workers into the conflict zone has gone well. Your timely and pragmatic logistics planning supported all that activity, and you are a big part of making the mission successful (so far). People have noticed. Congratulations.

Now they want you to do it again. After a busy month and much diplomacy, a decision has been made to evacuate 200,000 of the refugees to facilities on the island of Cyprus, as shown in the screenshot below. One facility is the British RAF base at Akrotiri, and the other is the city of Famagusta on the Turkish side of the island. Assume 50,000 refugees will go to Akrotiri, 150,000 will go to Famagusta, and 300,000 refugees will remain in the Homs safe haven in Syria. You need to start planning for this new operation right away.

 (click on screenshot for larger image)

You just had a meeting with the mission commander, and you sketched out the supply chain model shown in the screenshot above. The commander looked it over, asked a few questions, and said, “Let’s go with it.” So that’s the new CONOPS. However, when you left the meeting there was still some ambiguity about how the commander wants to redeploy troops to protect this upcoming operation, and how the humanitarian personnel will be reassigned to new facilities. But what else is new? It’s part of the job. You make some assumptions and recommendations about those things in your plan to support this new phase of the mission.

You know there will not additional troops because there are now fewer facilities to protect. Word has it the commander is looking to reduce troop levels if possible. Refugees are concentrated in the safe haven, and there are no longer any transit camps north of Hama. But because the number of refugees has not changed, there is no expectation that the number of aid workers will be reduced even though they will be concentrated at fewer facilities. The civilian medical facility and the military operating base at Hama will be maintained at a reduced level of activity for both of them. In this next operation 200,000 refugees will be transported by road and railroad from Homs to Tartus Port as shown in the screenshot below.

Since the transit camps in Aleppo, Idlib and Marat Numan will be closed, the three military forward operating bases (FOBs) to protect those camps are no longer needed. There will be an FOB just outside of Homs (circled in orange in the screenshot above) to provide protection for the safe haven. And the commander thinks there needs to be one other FOB between Homs and Tartus Port to watch over and protect the routes for transporting refugees. Where do you think that FOB should be located?

HINT: A famous castle called Krak des Chevaliers was built in this area some 900 years ago to watch over transportation routes through the mountain passes between Homs and the Syrian coast. The modern roads and rail line still use those same mountain passes. Perhaps a location nearby on high ground overlooking the main road and rail line would be a good place for a new FOB. What modes of transportation will you use to keep the FOBs supplied? Why?

Krak_des_Chevaliers_landscape.jpg: (Ergo)derivative work: Nev1 / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

In Tartus Port there will be a transit facility where people may stay for up to two or three days for processing and waiting to board passenger ships that will take them to Akrotiri or Famagusta. The British military will handle security at Akrotiri, and the Turkish military will handle security in Famagusta. So there is no need to redeploy troops to those facilities. The fact that troops will be concentrated in fewer locations should enable a reduction in overall inventory, transportation and operating costs even if total troop strength is not greatly reduced. The commander wants you to find opportunities to “do more with less.”

NOTE: The design for this real-time logistics collaboration platform is presented in our article, “Massively Multiplayer Disaster Response Collaboration“, published by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM)  Center for Excellence in Disaster Management, Liaison Journal, Volume 13, Issue 2, Dec 2021. The article starts on pg. 66; view it online or download a PDF copy here – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K81ShvL7gmvl1XBtVKpPR-1HdOq1VtkQ/view?usp=sharing

Commanding general of the U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) requested a briefing on how this platform enables effective collaboration, and how this platform can be designed to withstand cyber attacks and communication disruptions. Our short slide brief for the general can be viewed online or downloaded here – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lxn2lFXGLcFv28KujBVHnIkkA_RziCvZ/view?usp=sharing

Guidance for Working on the Second Challenge

There is a lot going on here. Much data needs to be collected, and many calculations have to be made for this new plan. Use Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain and the M&OP process to organize and guide your activity. Create initial definitions for products, facilities, vehicles and routes for this mission based on your research and calculations. Make your best estimates in the time available, document your assumptions, and move on. This becomes the logistics portion of the new mission CONOPS.

Use that new CONOPS to do your Demand Plan. Then use the Demand Plan to create your Supply Plan. Data from those plans will define the products needed, plus facilities, vehicles and routes for the supply chain to support this next phase of the mission. Use that data to build the initial model of the mission supply chain. Run that model in simulations and find out where the problems are, then adjust your model and operating schedules to fix those problems. Simulate a few different supply chain designs and pick what works best… You know the drill.

Oh, and by the way, the mission commander wants to see your new plan in 48 hours. Are you up to it?

FIND USEFUL IDEAS in the online guide to expand and improve your supply chain model:

• See techniques for expanding this supply chain model in “Tips for Building Supply Chain Models”
• Reduce on-hand inventory and calculate optimum delivery amounts and schedules in “Cutting Inventory and Operating Costs“
• Make sure you are familiar with the techniques presented in “Analyzing Simulation Data“
• USE THE M&OP PROCESS to organize your work and stay focused, see explanation above and in case study “Nepal Earthquake Disaster Response“

Working on this case will be challenging… but the skills and insights you develop here will be the same skills and insights you use to plan and manage logistics on a real mission.

PRESENT THE NEW LOGISTICS PLAN — Once you have a supply chain model that runs for 15+ days, and after you have taken actions to reduce operating costs and inventory levels, put together a briefing for the commander of JTF-51. As you did the first time, include the following in your brief:

• CONOPS showing operating facilities to be used and personnel located at each facility
• Demand Plan based on CONOPS showing demand for different categories of products at each facility
• Supply Plan showing vehicles and routes to deliver products to facilities to meet demand
• Supply Chain Model showing location of products, facilities, vehicles and routes on map and specifications for each of these entities
• Supply Chain Operating Plan based on the supply chain model – it specifies facilities, vehicles and routes plus delivery frequencies and amounts
• Simulation Results showing operating costs and inventory levels at each facility over the first 15+ days of the new operation – your baseline for tracking plan vs actual performance

NOTE: This is an ADVANCED LEVEL case study – work through a beginning level case such as Cincinnati Seasonings before attempting to work with this case.

CASE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: We would like to thank Bill Morrissey, COL U.S. Army (Ret.) who created the CONOPS for this case, and outlined the best practice called Intelligence Preparation of the Supply Chain (IPSC). We also want to thank Dr. Dennis Duke at Florida Institute of Technology, and former NAVAIR Research and Engineering Fellow for the U.S. Navy. He and his students were instrumental in helping us develop this case and refine the Mission and Operations Planning (M&OP) process presented here.

SAVE BACKUP COPIES of your supply chain model from time to time as you make changes. Click “Save” button next to your model in Account Management screen. There is no “undo”, but if a change doesn’t work out, you can restore from a saved copy. And sometimes supply chain model files (json files) become damaged and they no longer work, so you want backup copies of your supply chain to restore from when that happens.

SHARE CHANGES AND IMPROVEMENTS to this model (.json file) with other SCM Globe users see “Download and Share Supply Chain Models”

Register on SCM Globe to gain access to this and other supply chain simulations. Click the blue “Register” button on the app login page, and buy an account with a credit card (unless you already have an account). Scan the “Getting Started” section, and you are ready to start. Go to the SCM Globe library and click the “Import” button next to this or any other supply chain model.